3 forecast records · 2 open · 1 live comparison

Crypto forecasts vs. actual prices.

For each forecast we record the source, publication date, target, deadline, and every later revision. At maturity, the target is compared with the actual market price.

Receipt 001 · Bank Research
Due 31 Dec 2026

Standard Chartered's ETH target

$10,000 $4,000 $12,000 $7,500 $4,000

Five revisions in twelve months (Jul 2025 - Jul 2026), same analyst, same asset. Both directions were argued with internally consistent stories - the “fees are leaking to the L2 networks” bear case on the way down, “treasury companies keep buying ETH” on the way back up. The target still swung 60%. Long-dated version on file: $40,000 by 2030.

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ETH now
$4,000
Current target · end 2026
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Required to hit it
SRC · published research, timestamped · live price: CoinGecko
Receipt 002 · Bank Research, Aggregate
Reference range

The 2026 ETH target range

$1,200 ------ $40,000

The lowest and highest published targets differ by a factor of 33. A range from $1,200 to $40,000 cannot distinguish most plausible outcomes: almost any future ETH price will sit near somebody's published target.

SRC · published 2026 year-end ETH targets, major houses
Receipt 003 · Machine Consensus
Results due Jul 2027

What the AI models predicted

On 22 Jul 2026 we logged the 12-month price expectations of 17 AI model configurations - live prices injected, versions pinned, five samples each. Their mean expected return, one year out:

+36%
BTC · 12m
+44%
ETH · 12m
+70%
SOL · 12m

The same models produced zero "buy now" answers when asked the retail question directly. Every estimate has a maturity date. In July 2027 the machines are compared with the actual prices on this page. Read the first run →

SRC · machine consensus sensor, run 2026-07-22, battery v1.0

Inclusion requires a named source, a numeric target, and a deadline. Revisions are added without replacing earlier values. The result is the percentage error between target and market price at maturity. Corrections remain visible.