ETH Regime Monitor

Does Ethereum's success reach the token?

The Ethereum network can succeed while the ETH token doesn't - that's the "value capture" question. These six readings show whether the network's success is actually reaching the token, or leaking past it. Each reading has a public source and a fixed threshold.

CURRENT STATUS
- calibrating -
-
CONFIRM
-
NEUTRAL
-
BREAK

This verdict judges value capture by the ETH token, not the health of the Ethereum network. The two can diverge - that divergence is what this instrument measures.

Bank price targets for ETH have swung by over 60% - within months, from the same analyst.

When the serious research houses scatter between $1,200 and $40,000 and revise their numbers every quarter, a single target is difficult to use. These six readings instead track relative performance, supply, settlement, collateral, L2 fee routing, and institutional demand.

How this is measured

Five readings update from public data sources. The sixth - ETF absorption - is a reported figure refreshed by hand from published ETF flow aggregates, because no free endpoint serves it; it is labeled separately.

Relative strength
ETH/BTC ratio against its 200-day trend.
Supply
Net emission: fees burned versus issuance. Below zero = the token is getting scarcer.
Settlement
Share of stablecoin value sitting on Ethereum itself rather than on L2s or rival chains.
Collateral
ETH and ETH derivatives deposited in the four largest lending and CDP protocols, counted in ETH so the price itself does not move the reading.
L2 routing
Share of all L2 user fees that reaches Ethereum as payments for data, proofs, and settlement, over 30 days.
Demand
US spot ETF net purchases over ~30 days divided by newly issued ETH in the same window. Above 1x, institutions absorb more ETH than the protocol issues.
Methodology v2 · fixed 5 Aug 2026. Three changes against v1 (14 Jul - 5 Aug 2026), prompted by an external review: the collateral reading now counts ETH deposited in lending protocols instead of restaking TVL in dollars (v1: EigenLayer TVL, confirm ≥ $18B - that measured the restaking cycle, not collateral demand, and moved with the ETH price); the manual based-rollup check is replaced by the measurable L2 fee-routing share (v1: judgment flag that could not confirm in practice); ETF absorption is new. Verdicts before 5 Aug 2026 - including Note #001 - were graded against v1 thresholds and stand as published.

How this is used

The six readings provide context for ETH exposure without relying on a price target. Thresholds are fixed in advance; source values and update time are shown on the page. The hand-refreshed ETF figure is labeled separately.

How this is measured